Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.737614e-05 0.000081 0.000095 0.000111 0.000130 0.000149 0.000172
2025-02-16 5.397562e-05 0.000072 0.000093 0.000118 0.000148 0.000181 0.000222
2025-02-23 4.408831e-05 0.000064 0.000087 0.000118 0.000154 0.000197 0.000249
2025-03-02 3.458935e-05 0.000055 0.000080 0.000114 0.000157 0.000207 0.000272
2025-03-09 2.870421e-05 0.000049 0.000076 0.000113 0.000161 0.000219 0.000294
2025-03-16 2.418095e-05 0.000045 0.000073 0.000113 0.000166 0.000233 0.000320
2025-03-23 2.086364e-05 0.000041 0.000071 0.000114 0.000173 0.000247 0.000345
2025-03-30 1.745420e-05 0.000037 0.000068 0.000113 0.000176 0.000257 0.000366
2025-04-06 1.428929e-05 0.000033 0.000064 0.000111 0.000177 0.000264 0.000382
2025-04-13 1.309947e-05 0.000033 0.000064 0.000115 0.000187 0.000283 0.000415
2025-04-20 1.047164e-05 0.000029 0.000060 0.000111 0.000186 0.000287 0.000427
2025-04-27 8.778990e-06 0.000026 0.000058 0.000110 0.000189 0.000296 0.000446
2025-05-04 7.155186e-06 0.000024 0.000055 0.000109 0.000192 0.000306 0.000468
2025-05-11 6.580691e-06 0.000023 0.000056 0.000114 0.000204 0.000328 0.000506
2025-05-18 5.528968e-06 0.000022 0.000055 0.000115 0.000209 0.000341 0.000532
2025-05-25 4.117512e-06 0.000019 0.000051 0.000110 0.000207 0.000344 0.000544
2025-06-01 3.314956e-06 0.000017 0.000049 0.000110 0.000210 0.000354 0.000566
2025-06-08 2.676039e-06 0.000016 0.000047 0.000110 0.000213 0.000365 0.000589
2025-06-15 2.232307e-06 0.000015 0.000047 0.000111 0.000219 0.000379 0.000616
2025-06-22 1.716821e-06 0.000013 0.000045 0.000110 0.000221 0.000387 0.000636
2025-06-29 1.243317e-06 0.000012 0.000042 0.000107 0.000221 0.000392 0.000651
2025-07-06 1.126774e-06 0.000012 0.000043 0.000111 0.000232 0.000413 0.000689
2025-07-13 7.490926e-07 0.000010 0.000040 0.000108 0.000229 0.000415 0.000699